Starmer Reflects on Iraq War Lessons
"Engaging in armed conflict in breach of international law is a precarious business."
These words were written by Keir Starmer QC in in March 2003, as Britain was preparing to join the Iraq War. Nearly 25 years later, Sir Keir Starmer KC confronts a complex challenge regarding the UK's response to American military operations in the Middle East.
In a speech released by Downing Street on Sunday night, Sir Keir—who opposed British involvement in Iraq and was then years away from becoming an MP, let alone prime minister—emphasized the importance of learning from past mistakes:
"We all remember the mistakes of Iraq. And we have learned those lessons."
He also underscored the national interest, closing his address by invoking Britain three times in a single sentence:
"This is the British government, protecting British interests and British lives."
This emphasis may seem straightforward, but it signaled the prime minister's intent to delineate the UK’s approach to the current conflict from the broader objectives of regime change pursued by the US and Israel.
UK’s Position on US Strikes Against Iran
Sir Keir had already distinguished the UK’s stance by not participating in or assisting the initial wave of US strikes. However, government ministers have been reluctant to explicitly state the implication of this stance—that the strikes were wrong and potentially unlawful.
In his statement, the prime minister announced a new position: while the UK would not engage in "offensive action" against Iran, it would permit the US to use joint UK-US bases to conduct strikes against Iran. This change responds to what he described as Iran's "scorched earth strategy" following US and Israeli actions.
The UK government specifies that these strikes are intended solely to degrade Iran's ability to launch missile and drone attacks across the region, including in Gulf countries where many British citizens reside. This approach contrasts with the earlier US request, which Sir Keir resisted, to use British bases for broader strikes on Iran.
Parliamentary and Political Challenges
This distinction is expected to face scrutiny in the House of Commons from multiple perspectives. Some MPs will criticize the government for allowing any US strikes from British bases, fearing that this involvement could deepen the UK's entanglement in the conflict. Others will question whether even limited strikes can be considered purely defensive, given the broader American strategy aimed at regime change in Iran.
Conversely, some MPs will argue that the government should support more extensive strikes to remove a regime that has threatened regional stability and British citizens both abroad and domestically.
Currently, these positions are represented by the Greens and Liberal Democrats on one side, and the Conservatives and Reform UK on the other. The complexity is heightened within Labour itself, where a wide range of views exists due to the party's size and its growing divisions on foreign policy since 7 October 2023.
This situation presents delicate political terrain for Sir Keir, especially following the Gorton and Denton by-election, where the Green Party's victory partly reflected the impact of foreign policy, particularly regarding the Middle East, on British politics.
Furthermore, the prevailing assumption since Iraq is that British military involvement in the Middle East is generally unpopular.
International Alliances and Leadership Dynamics
The politics of Britain’s international alliances add further complexity. The prime minister is coordinating with the other E3 leaders: Germany’s Christian Democrat Chancellor Friedrich Merz and France’s centrist President Emmanuel Macron.
However, Sir Keir’s closest global political influences are Anthony Albanese and Mark Carney, centre-left prime ministers of Australia and Canada, respectively. Only a month ago, Labour MPs widely praised Carney’s Davos speech on the "rupture in the world order," urging Sir Keir to adopt a similar approach.
Notably, both Carney and Albanese have supported the US action in Iran. Even Chancellor Merz has expressed a different perspective, stating recently that "international law classifications will have little effect" on forthcoming developments.
Consular and Economic Considerations
These international and political complexities precede the consular challenges facing the government, particularly regarding the welfare of more than 300,000 British citizens currently in the Gulf region.
Officials involved in consular work are cautious to avoid suggesting that a government evacuation is imminent but acknowledge that prolonged conflict could increase demands for government assistance.
Additionally, a prolonged war could impact fuel prices and inflation in the UK, intensifying debates about whether the UK is increasing defence spending sufficiently and rapidly enough.
Almost every dilemma confronting Sir Keir and his government is complicated further by this conflict.
