Labour Faces Record-Low Local Election Performance in May
Data analysed by indicates Labour is poised for its worst local election outcome, intensifying pressure on Keir Starmer’s leadership. Unless there is a significant turnaround, Labour’s vote share could reach historic lows in the elections for English councils and devolved parliaments in Wales and Scotland on 7 May. Recent polling suggests substantial gains for Reform, the Greens, and nationalist parties.
Existential Threat in Welsh Parliament Race
The decline in Labour’s support is especially critical in the Welsh parliament, the Senedd, which Labour has dominated since its establishment in 1999. Polling shows Labour’s vote share dropping by more than half, potentially relegating the party to third place, with Reform and Plaid Cymru competing for first.
Continued Decline in Scotland
Labour’s long-term decline in Scotland is expected to persist, with the Scottish National Party (SNP) likely to maintain control of Holyrood and Reform projected to secure second place.
Challenges Across England
In England, Labour confronts multiple threats from Reform, the Greens, the Conservatives, and independents across 136 council races, including in traditional strongholds in London and the north. Reliable polling for these council races is limited, but Labour’s recent national poll decline, alongside rises for other parties, leads experts to anticipate unprecedented losses.
Projected Councillor Losses and Gains
Stephen Fisher, professor of political sociology at the University of Oxford, estimates Labour will lose approximately 1,900 councillors on 7 May, representing 74% of the seats Labour currently holds that are up for re-election. This would mark the worst local election performance for any prime minister since comparable records began.
Fisher projects Reform will gain 2,260 councillors, tripling its local representation overnight, while the Greens are expected to gain 450 and the Liberal Democrats 200. The Conservatives face a net loss of 1,010 councillors, indicating voter dissatisfaction with Britain’s two main parties.
“Reform gains at last year’s local elections amounted to a record-breaking 41% of the seats up for election,” Fisher said.
“Now they have extended their polling lead, Reform should do even better this year if they can maintain the same conversion rate for opinion poll ratings into council seat gains.
If they can, then the consequences are enormous losses for the Conservatives and unprecedented losses for Labour.”
Potential Leadership Crisis for Starmer
A defeat of this magnitude could revive calls for a leadership challenge against Starmer, who has faced criticism over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador. Several Labour ministers have recently raised the possibility of Starmer’s removal following poor local election results, citing the international crisis over the Iran war.
The controversy surrounding Mandelson’s US role has intensified scrutiny on Starmer’s future, with opposition parties demanding his resignation. Record-breaking electoral losses would exacerbate concerns within Labour.
Scope of Elections on 7 May
The elections on 7 May include 136 local councils in England, plus the Welsh and Scottish parliaments. Labour currently holds outright majorities in 66 areas, some governed continuously for decades.
London: Labour Stronghold at Risk
All councillors in London’s 32 borough councils are up for election. Over the past decade, London has become a Labour stronghold, supported by younger, ethnically diverse voters facing high living costs. However, current polling compared to 2022 shows Labour’s support in London has sharply declined.
This decline primarily benefits the Greens, who are closing in on first place, while Reform is also rising faster than the Conservatives are falling.
The Greens currently hold a few councillors in boroughs such as Brent, Richmond upon Thames, and Lambeth. If recent polling is accurate, the Greens could gain control of a council in London for the first time.
Key targets for the Greens include Hackney and Lewisham, the latter where leader Zack Polanski launched the Greens' election campaign earlier this month. These boroughs have been Labour-held for over 20 years but face challenges from rising rents, gentrification concerns, and dissatisfaction with the Labour government.
A YouGov forecast published this week predicts the Greens will lead in vote share in Hackney, Lewisham, Lambeth, and Waltham Forest, though Labour remains a close second.
Outer London: Potential Gains for Reform and Conservatives
Outer London boroughs, which are older and more suburban, may see gains for right-wing parties. Barking and Dagenham council, Labour-held since the 1960s, is a possible breakthrough area for Reform. This borough has high diversity and deprivation levels but voted heavily for Brexit in 2016.
Last year, council leader Dominic Twomey warned of Reform’s growing influence in London, cautioning Labour against complacency. YouGov’s London MRP model suggests Reform could come first in Barking and Dagenham, Havering, and Bromley on 7 May.
Conservative gains are also possible in outer London. A poll circulated among Labour MPs in March indicated the Tories might regain Barnet from Labour.
Northern England: Labour’s Historic Councils Under Threat
Labour’s longest-held councils in the north, many controlled continuously since the 1970s, face significant challenges. Reform is polling in first place in the region, having attracted culturally conservative but economically insecure voters.
The Greens are also gaining ground in the north, following their by-election victory in Gorton and Denton, near Manchester, in February.
Nigel Farage launched Reform’s local election campaign in Sunderland, a Brexit-supporting city held by Labour since 1974. Sunderland’s Labour leader, Michael Mordey, expressed deep concern about a potential Reform surge.
Farage has campaigned in the north-west, including Sefton in Merseyside and Southport, the site of anti-immigration riots in 2024 after a mass stabbing at a girls' dance class. There, Farage faced questions from a Liverpool Echo reporter about social media comments that some say inflamed local tensions.
The Greens have concentrated efforts in Newcastle, where local Muslim voters have told they might switch from Labour to the Greens, partly because they view the Greens as the best party to oppose the far right.
Wales: Potential End to Labour’s Century-Long Dominance
Labour has been the dominant party in Wales since before devolution, especially in south Wales around Cardiff and the post-industrial belt of Rhondda, Cynon Valley, and Merthyr Tydfil. These voters have supported Labour through New Labour years and subsequent opposition periods.
YouGov's latest MRP poll for the Senedd elections, published on 22 April, forecasts a dramatic shift. Labour could fall to third place with only 12 seats, ending a century of dominance in Welsh politics.
Reform and Plaid Cymru are neck-and-neck for first place, with Reform narrowly ahead by one seat (37 to 36). Neither party would have a majority, making a coalition possible, potentially involving Plaid Cymru, Labour, and the Greens.
Within five years, Labour could transition from governing Wales to a junior coalition partner in the Senedd.
Scotland: SNP Majority and Reform Breakthrough Expected
Labour’s decline in Scotland has been ongoing, benefiting the SNP, a trend likely to continue. Around Starmer’s 2024 leadership victory, the SNP appeared vulnerable due to a police investigation into party finances, the collapse of a power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens, and leadership instability following Nicola Sturgeon’s 2023 resignation.
Two years later, the SNP’s position has strengthened. Current forecasts project Labour’s share in the Scottish parliament shrinking to 12%, its lowest since devolution began in 1999. The SNP could win 67 seats, enough for a majority, gaining Dumbarton from Labour and Aberdeenshire West from the Conservatives.
Reform is set for a major breakthrough, moving from zero seats to becoming the largest right-wing party in Scotland.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly called for Starmer’s resignation in February, likely reflecting these bleak prospects.
Implications for Starmer’s Leadership
While 7 May could be an electoral disaster for Labour, its impact on Starmer’s tenure as prime minister is uncertain. His odds of survival have improved since the US-Israeli war in Iran, as his refusal to involve the UK directly may have reduced public disapproval in March.
However, this improvement has begun to reverse, and polling has yet to fully reflect the impact of the Mandelson appointment controversy. It is possible that Starmer has already reached peak unpopularity.
Labour must consider whether the upcoming local elections represent the worst outcome under Starmer or the beginning of further challenges.
