London Primary Schools Impacted by Housing Costs and Declining Birthrate
Schools in London remain the most affected in England and Wales by rising housing costs and a declining birthrate. This has led to a significant decrease in the number of children enrolling in reception classes, with further closures and mergers of primary schools anticipated.
According to school place offers announced by local authorities across England, London’s boroughs will see nearly 3,000 fewer four-year-olds starting school in September of the next academic year.
While some rural councils such as Shropshire and Cornwall also experienced declines in enrolments, London recorded a 3.5% drop compared to the previous year. Council leaders partly attribute this decline to the capital’s higher living costs.
Admissions Board Highlights Ongoing Trends
Jon Abbey, chair of the pan-London admissions board responsible for allocating school places, commented on the situation:
“Falling birthrates and the ongoing cost of living pressures facing London families, including high housing costs, have again contributed to a decrease in overall applications this year, a trend we expect to continue in the years ahead.”
Approximately 88% of families in London received their first choice of school, although this varied significantly between boroughs. In Hammersmith and Fulham and Kensington and Chelsea, only about 75% of families secured their first preference, whereas in Hillingdon, Tower Hamlets, and Enfield, the success rate was closer to 95%.
Forecasts Predict Further Declines and Funding Challenges
London councils forecast a further 2.5% reduction in reception pupil numbers over the next four years, equating to 87 fewer primary school classes. Inner London is expected to be the most affected area. Additionally, a sustained decrease in demand for secondary school places is anticipated during the same period.
Antonia Jennings, chief executive of the Centre for London thinktank, addressed the challenges faced by councils:
“Falling enrolment means less funding for schools. Ninety schools have closed or merged in the past five years. London faces a £45m reduction in school funding over the next four years, and a quarter of schools are already in budget deficit. This means cuts to staff, specialist support and the curriculum.”
“At the same time, the needs of London children are becoming more complex. More pupils are growing up in poverty, with limited access to food, living in overcrowded homes or temporary accommodation.
“This places increasing pressure on schools, as education is interrupted and teachers plug the gaps left by stretched public services. Unless we give schools and local councils the resources to support families, London’s children will pay the price.”
National Primary School Offer Day and Regional Variations
On National Primary School Offer Day, families across England and Wales were informed of the schools where their children starting in September would be placed. Parents or carers had named between three and six preferred schools.
Shropshire council reported receiving 2,582 applications, representing a 3% decrease compared with the previous year. Despite the reduction, nearly all families received their first choice of school.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers, remarked on the overall situation:
“While most parents will be happy to have found out that they have got their first choice, that doesn’t take away from the difficulty and disappointment experienced by those families who have missed out. And there is a concern this year that overall offer figures may mask quite big regional variations.”
In Kent, applications were slightly higher this year, with 89% of families receiving their first choice. Cornwall had 4,757 applications, a 1% decrease from 2025, with nearly 96% of families securing their first preference. North Yorkshire experienced an increase in applications, following the closure of more than 30 rural primary schools since 2018.
