Forces Reduced Since Cold War Amid Rising Global Threats
It has been over three weeks since the US and Israel initiated attacks on Iran, and only now is the first British warship arriving off the coast, marking a delayed defensive deployment that underscores the UK's limited military capacity.
HMS Dragon, nominally one of three destroyers available out of six, was taken out of dry dock, prepared, and tested in the Channel for several days before deployment. Its exact arrival date remains unconfirmed.
“It’s clear one of the military’s big problems is giving the government contingency options,” said Matthew Savill, of the Royal United Services Institute, reflecting years of spending constraints. “Numbers and capacity have been cut, though the UK has tried to argue that smaller can be better.”
Political priorities have also been focused elsewhere. As the US increased its military presence in the Middle East from late January, the UK opted to remain largely on the sidelines. A limited number of fighter jets were deployed to RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus and Qatar early in 2026 as a modest defensive measure against potential Iranian retaliation.
“Keir Starmer had decided this is not our war,” a former senior British military commander said. But, he added, “if you’ve made that decision it colours your deployments elsewhere” – indicating the UK is unlikely to be fully prepared should the conflict initiated by the US and Israel escalate uncontrollably.
Ministry of Defence (MoD) insiders state that the decision to deploy HMS Dragon was made on the fourth day of the conflict with Iran. The option was presented to Chief of Defence Staff Richard Knighton and approved by him and Defence Secretary John Healey approximately 36 hours after hostile drones targeted the UK’s base at Akrotiri. One drone struck a hangar used by US spy planes, prompting evacuation of non-essential personnel and thousands of nearby Cypriot residents.
HMS Dragon is the only Royal Navy warship confirmed to have been deployed so far, despite US pressure on the UK to increase its presence in the Strait of Hormuz. HMS Anson, the only available nuclear attack submarine out of six, may be heading towards the Middle East after departing western Australia over a week ago.
Military Readiness and Capacity Challenges
Former General Richard Barrons, a member of Labour’s strategic defence review team, argued that the current lack of military readiness is a consequence of the post-Cold War era’s armed forces configuration, which was designed for a period perceived as free of significant threats.
At the Cold War’s end, the UK possessed 51 destroyers and frigates, supported by defence spending at 3.2% of GDP. By 2007, this number had halved to 25 and currently stands at just 13, with much of the fleet aging. Defence spending is now 2.4% of GDP, with Labour pledging a modest increase to 2.5% by April 2027.
For two decades, Britain maintained four minehunters and a mothership in Bahrain, anticipating that Iran might attempt to mine the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz during a crisis. However, the last three minehunters were withdrawn in the past year, with two retired, including HMS Middleton, which was towed back to the UK in January.
“We had prepared for this eventuality [the conflict with Iran], but when it happened the UK was not there,” a naval officer said.
Military figures frequently criticize both Labour ministers and their Conservative predecessors for reluctance to confront what one former senior figure calls the “rhetoric to reality gap,” where the UK projects itself as a global power with extensive military capabilities that are, in reality, stretched thin.
An example is the UK’s commitment to lead a stabilisation force for Ukraine alongside France, contingent on a durable ceasefire. This commitment comes at a time when the British Army’s size is at a low of 71,151 personnel.
A mission where Russia is considered a moderate threat could require approximately 5,000 UK troops, which one army figure described as “quite testing” to sustain for over two years due to rotation needs, especially if the current battle group in Estonia is maintained.
Some Whitehall insiders criticize Starmer for not leveraging the UK’s relationship with the US effectively and suggest that “no one in the cabinet or elected Labour has a mind to use hard power.” The loss of niche capabilities, such as minehunting, diminishes the UK’s relevance, according to a former Whitehall official.
Political Stance and Defence Spending
Remaining out of the bombing campaign against Iran is politically popular in the UK, and Starmer has stated clearly that the UK “will not be drawn into the wider war.” Meanwhile, former US President Donald Trump appeared surprised by Israel’s recent bombing of Iranian gas fields and may be considering a ground campaign in the Gulf.
Despite this, Starmer has theoretically accepted increased UK military spending amid global uncertainty. At last summer’s NATO summit, he agreed to raise defence budgets by approximately £30 billion to 3.5% of GDP by 2035.
However, this commitment has not been reflected in Treasury budgeting. Earlier this week, Chancellor Rachel Reeves mentioned only reaching 3% “for the next parliament,” which could extend until 2034.
Financial stagnation has persisted for months, with a 10-year defence investment plan outlining detailed spending on hold since last autumn and no publication date set. The Treasury has yet to allocate the necessary funds. Speculation last month about increasing the defence budget to 3% by 2030 was quickly dismissed by Downing Street.
The MoD estimates it requires an additional £28 billion over the next four years to fulfill existing commitments, including the £31 billion Dreadnought nuclear submarine replacement, construction of new frigates with Norway, development of new combat aircraft with Italy and Japan, and new Aukus nuclear-powered submarines with the US and Australia.
“Could we do that with the budget that we have got? The answer is no,” Knighton conceded in January as he reviewed the MoD’s overall aspirations.
With UK economic growth slowing, financial resources remain constrained. A former senior civil servant noted,
“Everybody is saying there is no financial headroom.”There is no indication that a politically vulnerable Starmer will override the Treasury’s position.
The ex-official warned that the UK faces a world of “strong, mad leaders” and expressed concern about a potential China-US confrontation in the coming years. This underscores the argument that increased military investment is essential for a medium-sized country given the possibility of escalating global dangers.
