Potential New Prime Minister on the Horizon
It is now likely, perhaps highly likely, that the United Kingdom will have a new prime minister, possibly within weeks or months. The political atmosphere is considerably less fraught, noisy, and unpredictable than it was last week. Nevertheless, the politics shaping who is most likely to replace Sir Keir Starmer are unfolding before the public.
However, as supporters of the current prime minister emphasize, there has been no formal challenge to him yet, and he is making clear, at least for now, that he is continuing with his duties.
Labour MPs’ Perspectives on Starmer’s Departure
Some Labour MPs express frustration that Sir Keir has not outlined a timetable for his departure. Others consider that it might be advantageous to Andy Burnham, in his upcoming by-election contest in Makerfield, if the prime minister has not announced a plan to step down. This would allow Burnham to argue that a win for him would compel Starmer to resign.
The Unique Dynamics of the Shadow Contest
There is a notable peculiarity: this is a shadow contest rather than a formal one. Additionally, Burnham must win the by-election, whereas his potential rival, the former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, does not have such an immediate electoral challenge.
This situation creates an asymmetry in their audiences. Burnham’s immediate focus is geographical and demographic, targeting the towns and villages near Wigan, St Helens, and Leigh in the northwest of England, which comprise the Makerfield constituency. Streeting’s audience, by contrast, consists of Labour MPs and party members whom he needs to persuade if a contest occurs next month.
Wes Streeting’s Position and Public Statements
Now a backbencher, Streeting is free from front bench collective responsibility for the first time in years. This freedom allows him to speak publicly without restraint. Over the weekend, he stated that he believes Brexit was a "catastrophic mistake" and expressed hope that the UK would one day rejoin the European Union.
Andy Burnham’s Stance on Brexit and Political Strategy
Burnham’s view is not drastically different; last autumn, he said he hoped the UK would rejoin the EU in his lifetime. However, he has recently shifted his emphasis, stating that discussing rejoining the bloc now is "the last thing we should do." Given that Makerfield voted decisively for Brexit and heavily supported Reform UK in local elections, this position aligns with his constituency’s preferences. Burnham explained that his emphasis reflects a desire to unite people, acknowledging over the weekend that he understands why many have been drawn to Reform UK.
There is notable frustration among Labour MPs regarding the renewed public focus on Brexit. One minister commented:
"It's mad. The referendum decision has to stand. I know what plenty of Labour Party members are like. They think the country got it wrong and they'd love to reverse Brexit. But it makes us look very detached. Improve Brexit, sure, but let's not get into overturning it, for goodness sake."
Fiscal Policy and Market Reassurances
Burnham has also stated that as prime minister, he would maintain the borrowing limits currently described by the government as "fiscal rules." He has sought to reassure markets on this point, having recently floated the idea of excluding some defence spending from these limits. In an interview with the New Statesman last autumn, he remarked that the government needed to "get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets."
These comments drew public rebuke from some Labour MPs at the time, including the prime minister and the chancellor. Burnham later clarified that his remark referred to politicians placing the country "in hock" to the markets due to losing control of public spending.
Upcoming Developments and Party Reactions
Further developments are expected soon. Burnham is anticipated to be confirmed as Labour's candidate in the Makerfield by-election within the next day or so, and more statements from Streeting are expected later this week.
Both candidates will face scrutiny as they attempt to articulate visions for the country that are distinctive yet sufficiently aligned with Labour’s manifesto from two years ago. This alignment is necessary to counter critics who argue that whoever replaces the prime minister lacks a personal mandate and should therefore call a general election.
Within the party, some privately speculate that if Burnham wins the by-election, the relief of having found a candidate capable of defeating Reform UK could lead to his installation as party leader without a contest, potentially becoming prime minister within weeks.
Conversely, others wonder how the party might react if Burnham loses the by-election. In that scenario, the recent noisy disputes and tensions might appear mild compared to what could follow.
