UK Food System at Risk of Unrest from Single Shock, Experts Warn
According to an analysis by leading UK food experts, the nation’s food system is precariously vulnerable, with chronic issues creating a "tinderbox" situation that could ignite social unrest or food riots following a significant shock such as a cyber-attack, extreme weather event, or international conflict.
The experts identified multiple factors undermining food security in the UK, including the ongoing climate crisis, low household incomes, inadequate farming policies, and fragile just-in-time supply chains. These systemic weaknesses have left the UK dangerously exposed to disruptions.
Potential Triggers for a Food Crisis
The analysis ranked major shocks most likely to precipitate a food crisis as extreme weather events, cyber-attacks, and international conflicts. Such shocks would disrupt supply chains and drive up food prices, potentially escalating social tensions and leading to unsafe food sales on hidden markets. In the worst case, this could culminate in civil unrest or food riots.
Among the experts surveyed, 80% believed that large-scale violence linked to a food crisis was possible within the next 50 years, with 40% anticipating it could occur within the next decade. The scenario considered involved more than 30,000 people sustaining violent injuries over a year due to food-related demonstrations or riots.
Recent Events Highlight Vulnerabilities
The researchers noted that some of the shocks deemed most dangerous have already occurred at smaller scales, serving as warnings. For instance, cyber-attacks affected both the Co-operative and Marks & Spencer supermarkets in 2025. Additionally, overseas droughts and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have contributed to rising food costs. Currently, one in seven UK families faced food insecurity in 2025, according to the Food Foundation.
Urgent Need for Systemic Action
The experts emphasized the urgency of addressing these systemic vulnerabilities through coordinated government and business efforts, alongside diversifying and increasing the resilience of food production within the UK. Presently, approximately 35% of the UK’s food is imported.
“The stability of the UK’s food system is a critical aspect of national security,” said Prof Sarah Bridle of the University of York, who led the analysis. “While we can’t always prevent future shocks, we can build resilience to withstand them, and stop a bad situation from becoming a crisis. Understanding how the system might react to extreme pressure is the first step to preventing worst-case scenarios unfolding in the future.”
Prof Aled Jones of Anglia Ruskin University, also part of the group, added,
“The UK is not immune to disruptions that can lead to severe consequences. Policymakers must adopt a long-term perspective to planning.”
A UK government spokesperson responded,
“Food security is national security, and our high degree of food security is built on both strong domestic production and imports through stable trade routes. This government is investing billions in the development of new technology to increase yields or create climate resilient crops, streamlining regulation, and helping farmers produce food for the nation.”
Global Concerns Over Food System Fragility
Concerns about food crises impacting security are not unique to the UK. Álvaro Lario, president of the International Fund for Agricultural Development, stated last week,
“Fragile food systems pose an underestimated risk to global stability.”
Details of the UK Analysis
The new UK analysis was compiled by consulting over 30 experts from academia, government, and industry. The group highlighted numerous chronic issues creating a tinderbox for a potential food crisis in the UK.
They identified three primary shocks with the greatest risk: extreme weather, cyber-attacks, and war. The report concluded,
“Any combination of these could lead to a UK food availability and/or price shock that could result in widespread fear of unsafe or inadequate food, leading to violence. Crime and violence to obtain food could [give] life to food riots.”
The analysis also noted that global food production is concentrated in major "breadbasket" countries such as the US, Brazil, and Russia, and that supply chain pinch-points like the Suez Canal add vulnerability. The digitization of the food system further increases susceptibility to cybersecurity threats.
Social factors were emphasized as well, with the report stating,
“A UK food system crisis could arise from hunger and resulting feelings of despair when coupled with a lack of trust in government.”
Voices from Those with Lived Experience
Dominic Watters, a researcher with lived experience of food poverty and a member of the study group, remarked,
“Food crises and civil unrest don’t come from a lack of calories alone; they come from a lack of dignity, voice, and care. This research highlights how the stigma of food insecurity is already creating cracks in our society. [It is] important to co-design responses with communities disproportionately affected, rather than simply deciding for them.”
The study recommended establishing a national forum on preparedness and planning that includes marginalized voices.
Additional Recommendations
Other measures proposed to reduce the risk of a food crisis included expanding regenerative agriculture to mitigate crop failure risks and implementing cash transfers to support the poorest populations during emergencies.
