Welsh Voters to Cast Ballots on 7 May
Living costs, health, and immigration are the primary concerns for Welsh voters ahead of the Senedd election in May, according to a new survey commissioned by the BBC.
The survey also indicates that 31% of respondents support independence, while 53% oppose it and 16% remain uncertain.
The upcoming Senedd election is expected to be the most competitive since the start of devolution, with opinion polls suggesting Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are in strong positions to challenge Labour for the status of the largest party.
When respondents were asked to list the most important issues facing Wales today, living costs were mentioned among the top three by 61%, with 50% citing the health service and 31% immigration.
Political Commentary on Priorities
Political commentator Professor Richard Wyn Jones from the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University stated he was not surprised by the overall picture,
"but there will be differences between supporters of different parties in terms of what they prioritise."
Regarding immigration, he noted,
"There is a segment of voters who think this is extremely important. So that is something very, very important to a relatively small group, and less important to others."
He added that the survey suggests that "Wales is stuck."
Health and Immigration Policies
The Welsh Government is responsible for running the health service in Wales, and waiting times are likely to be a hot topic during the election campaign.
Immigration policies fall under the control of the UK Government, but some projects to assist refugees receive funding from the Welsh Government, including the Nation of Sanctuary scheme, which has faced criticism from some opposition parties.
However, the main issue concerning voters appears to be the rise in the cost of goods and bills, combined with slow wage growth.
Fifty-six percent of people feel the economy has worsened compared to 12 months ago, with only 12% saying it has improved and 26% believing it has remained the same.
When asked the same question about the health service, 52% said it had worsened, 16% said it had improved, and 28% believed it was unchanged.
Support for Independence and Age Differences
Support for independence is similar to previous opinion polls, with younger people much more likely to want to see Wales separate from the United Kingdom.
Fifty-four percent of people aged 16 to 34 support independence, compared to only 19% of those over 55.
"Wales is Stuck"
Professor Richard Wyn Jones said the survey shows there is
"a significant minority who want independence"
but also
"a minority of people who want to abolish devolution as well."
He added,
"What this suggests to me is that Wales is stuck. There is a group of people – especially younger people – who want radical constitutional change... and there are people – mostly older – who do not like devolution, and these two views cannot be reconciled."
Immigration on the Political Agenda
Immigration is currently high on the political agenda, but according to the opinion poll, 39% of those surveyed believe immigration has been good for Wales, while 34% say it has been bad, and 23% say neither.
When asked whether there should be more, less, or the same level of immigration in the future, 50% said there should be less, 28% supported the same level, and only 14% said more.
The survey also suggests that 56% of voters support rejoining the European Union, with 34% wishing to remain outside.
Savanta surveyed 2,086 adults between 29 January and 6 February 2026, and a similar survey was conducted in Scotland.
Contact and Voting Information
Welsh voters will cast their ballots on 7 May, with the Senedd expanding from 60 to 96 members.
Voters will also use a new voting system for the first time, voting once but electing six members for each of the 16 new constituencies.
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