Andy Burnham's Path to Prime Minister
Andy Burnham is poised to become the United Kingdom's next prime minister following Sir Keir Starmer's announcement of his resignation as Labour Party leader. Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester, stands as the sole Labour MP contesting the leadership, with other potential candidates stepping aside to endorse his bid. This development could see Burnham entering Downing Street as early as mid-July, shortly after his return to Parliament after nearly ten years away from Westminster.
His recent victory in the Makerfield by-election provided insights into his prospective governance approach, as demonstrated during debates and media interviews. Notably, Burnham committed to maintaining the Starmer government's fiscal discipline concerning government debt and spending, aiming to reassure international investors that borrowing would not significantly increase under his leadership.
Below is a detailed overview of Burnham's potential policy positions.
Personal Taxes
Central to Burnham's taxation philosophy is the belief that the UK overtaxes labor while undertaxing wealth. This perspective has fueled speculation about a possible increase in capital gains tax, which applies to profits from selling assets such as shares and properties other than a primary residence, although Burnham has not explicitly endorsed this measure.
He has pledged adherence to Labour's previous commitment not to raise the principal rates of income tax, Value Added Tax (VAT), or National Insurance. During his Makerfield campaign, Burnham expressed interest in reviewing the possibility of increasing the £12,570 income tax starting threshold.
Additionally, Burnham has advocated for replacing council tax and stamp duty—a tax levied on homebuyers—with a new tax based on land value, an idea he has supported since 2010.
Water and Energy
Burnham has consistently supported stronger public control over water and energy companies, clarifying that this does not necessarily entail full nationalization, which would be financially burdensome. He cited Greater Manchester's bus network as an example, where private operators run services under franchise agreements, while local authorities regulate fares, schedules, and routes.
Although Burnham has not detailed what a similar model for water and energy sectors would involve, he has emphasized the importance of preventing excessive profiteering. The Starmer government had already planned to introduce enhanced oversight of the water sector through new legislation expected in the autumn.
Burnham has advocated for direct public ownership of Thames Water, a move that aligns with government objections to a proposed rescue deal for the company's debt issues in June.
Social Care
Burnham has long supported the establishment of a more universal social care system. In a 2023 speech, he proposed funding such a system by replacing inheritance tax with a new "national care levy," which would be paid by all, with the wealthiest contributing the most.
The Health Foundation think tank estimated in 2024 that implementing an NHS-style universal and comprehensive care model could require approximately £17 billion in additional funding by 2035/36. A less costly alternative, modeled on Scotland's system providing basic protection against some care costs, would cost around £7 billion by 2035/36 to replicate in England.
During his Makerfield campaign, Burnham reaffirmed his commitment to this approach but has yet to provide further implementation details.
Improving England's social care system remains a complex challenge, as subsidized care is currently reserved for individuals with the highest needs and least assets. Although Labour promised a system overhaul while in opposition, the government commissioned a funding review scheduled for completion in 2028, which Burnham has pledged to expedite to the end of this year.
Housing
Burnham has criticized the deprioritization of housing policy by successive governments. Many of his key proposals, such as focusing development on brownfield land and restricting the Right to Buy scheme, have already been initiated by the current government.
A significant policy shift he advocates is dedicating the entire £39 billion affordable housing budget over ten years exclusively to social rent homes, which are the most affordable and heavily subsidized form of publicly funded housing. Presently, portions of this budget support "affordable" housing with rents closer to market rates and affordable home ownership schemes.
Immigration
Similar to the Sunak administration, Labour has tightened visa requirements to reduce immigration levels. Burnham stated during his Makerfield campaign that net migration "needs to fall further," although he has not specified a target.
He may face internal party challenges regarding proposals to extend the residency period required for foreign nationals in the UK to qualify for permanent residence. Earlier in the year, Burnham urged Labour MPs to consider warnings from former deputy leader Angela Rayner about the potential impact of these changes. However, when campaigning for his own parliamentary seat, he expressed support for the "broad thrust" of the plans introduced by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood.
English Local Government
Burnham has consistently argued that the UK is excessively centralized and is expected to outline his plans on this issue in an upcoming speech. As mayor of Greater Manchester, he led one of England's most empowered regional authorities, overseeing housing, transport, policing, and local skills.
This area may see Burnham build upon the foundations laid by the Starmer government rather than pursue an entirely new direction. The current government is in the process of merging lower-tier councils across England and plans to introduce a new generation of regional mayors. Additionally, Chancellor Rachel Reeves was scheduled to present a roadmap at the next Budget detailing how to grant regional mayors greater control over local spending of national taxes.
Business Taxes
During the by-election campaign, Burnham's team released a policy document proposing a 20% reduction in business rates for pubs and music venues. This would be financed by increasing taxes on out-of-town warehouses used by online retailers such as Amazon.
Burnham also supports raising the threshold at which business rates apply, thereby exempting many small high street shops from paying these taxes altogether.
He expressed sympathy on night for smaller businesses' complaints regarding last year's increase in National Insurance contributions on employee salaries but stopped short of committing to reversing the change.
Foreign Policy and Defence
Burnham's Makerfield campaign yielded limited details on international affairs. At 56 years old, he has expressed a desire for the UK to rejoin the European Union within his lifetime but does not wish to "re-run the [2016] referendum now."
His approach to EU relations will soon be tested as he inherits ongoing negotiations concerning youth visas, food regulations, and plans to rejoin the EU's carbon pricing system.
Defence spending poses another challenge, especially following the resignation of Starmer's defence secretary John Healey in June. The outgoing leader aims to allocate additional funds for a long-delayed military investment plan, which he intends to publish before leaving office, potentially leading to disagreements with Burnham over the plan's scale.
Burnham has indicated the UK should pursue a "good relationship" with the United States while being prepared to express disagreement when necessary, particularly in dealings with former US President Donald Trump.
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