PM’s Authority Diminished Amid Leadership Uncertainty
In a turbulent week, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has experienced a significant erosion of authority, leading many MPs and members of the public to perceive him as an interim leader, effectively in office only until a replacement is arranged.
The situation became evident during a BBC interview on Friday morning when Steve Reed, the housing secretary and a close ally of Starmer, interrupted to clarify the status of leadership speculation. Asked about "moves" to remove Starmer, Reed stated:
"There is no contest. ‘Moves’ mean nothing. People need 81 nominations to stand against the prime minister."
Reed, a founding member of the Together thinktank instrumental in Starmer's rise, emphasized that no formal challenge had been launched against the prime minister.
Despite this, the political reality is stark. Within a brief but intense week, Starmer's grip on leadership has weakened considerably, with many viewing him as a temporary figure pending a leadership transition.
Potential Successor and Challenges Ahead
Although Wes Streeting resigned as health secretary, he has seemingly refrained from mounting a leadership challenge. Attention has turned to Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, who is widely regarded as the likely successor.
However, Burnham is not currently a member of parliament and must first secure a seat through a by-election in Makerfield, a constituency near Wigan. This seat presents challenges, with Reform UK optimistic about its chances and the Green Party also contesting.
Supporters of the prime minister maintain that Starmer intends to continue in his role. They express bewilderment that the Labour Party, which largely avoided internal conflicts during its time in opposition, is now embroiled in such disputes less than two years after a decisive election victory.
One Labour official loyal to Starmer remarked:
"At several points this week I’ve felt like I was going mad. Why are we even doing this? You can’t go around saying ‘the PM has to leave, and we don’t know who will replace him’. It’s wildly irresponsible."
Events Leading to the Current Crisis
The week’s turmoil began shortly after Labour's disappointing performance in elections across England, Scotland, and Wales. On the Saturday following these elections, MP Catherine West initiated a call for leadership change by stating she would seek the 81 nominations required to trigger a leadership contest if no cabinet member stepped forward. She subsequently emailed colleagues urging Starmer to resign.
West's actions marked the start of a three-day period of tentative moves to unseat Starmer, as various factions assessed their positions.
On Monday, several junior frontbenchers, mainly aligned with Streeting, resigned from government positions. That evening, multiple cabinet ministers reportedly began considering a timetable for Starmer's departure.
By Tuesday, the number of resignations increased, most notably including Jess Phillips. These resignations were primarily from Streeting’s supporters, although Miatta Fahnbulleh cited a desire to pressure Downing Street to facilitate Burnham’s return to parliament.
Wednesday saw a concerted effort by Downing Street to prevent a formal leadership challenge. Starmer met with his then health secretary for a brief meeting, while allies emphasized that Streeting lacked the necessary 81 MP nominations and had "bottled it."
Streeting’s Resignation and the Path Forward for Burnham
On Thursday, Wes Streeting resigned from the cabinet, submitting a lengthy and critical letter calling for a leadership contest with a broad field of candidates. This was interpreted as an acknowledgment of his insufficient support among MPs.
In a surprising development that same day, Catherine West told the BBC she might support Starmer if a contest were to occur.
Approximately four hours after Streeting’s resignation, despite denials from most Labour MPs in northwest England about standing down for Burnham, Josh Simons, a 2024 Labour intake MP with centre-right leanings, aligned himself closely with Burnham’s cause.
Steve Reed was present at an event when this news broke, with footage capturing his furrowed brow upon being informed by Michael Gove.
Later that day, Downing Street indicated that the party’s national executive committee, which had previously blocked Burnham from contesting the February Gorton and Denton by-election, would now permit his candidacy.
For Burnham’s supporters, this paved a clear path: he would be selected for the Makerfield seat, leverage his strong personal brand developed over nearly a decade as mayor to overcome Reform UK, and re-enter the Commons. Allies suggest the plan is for Burnham to immediately challenge Starmer and potentially assume leadership before the parliamentary summer recess in July.
Obstacles and Uncertainties Remain
Despite the boldness of this plan, significant challenges persist. Should Burnham lose the by-election to Reform UK, his leadership ambitions would likely end, undermining his claim as the only figure capable of preventing Nigel Farage from becoming prime minister. Additionally, Burnham’s departure as mayor could risk Greater Manchester falling under Reform UK control.
Even if Burnham secures a parliamentary seat, Starmer’s allies maintain that he would contest any leadership challenge and appeal to the Labour membership, who ultimately decide the leader, to prioritize stability.
This stance appears to have deterred Streeting from pursuing a leadership bid. One Starmer supporter commented:
"This was Wes’s moment and he messed it up. Everyone has been expecting him to go for it more or less since we got into office, and this was his chance. And he got 40 MPs. It’s embarrassing."
Despite extensive efforts by Starmer’s allies, including Darren Jones, the minister serving as chief secretary to the prime minister who spent six hours on Wednesday evening persuading MPs to remain loyal, the situation remains precarious.
Starmer’s Communication Challenges and Future Prospects
Starmer faces clear limitations, notably his reputation as a poor communicator with few clearly articulated policies, contributing to his unpopularity among voters, as evidenced by a generally lackluster response to his speech on Monday.
There are, however, signs of increased assertiveness. Starmer condemned a far-right march planned in London as part of "a fight for the soul of this country." Additionally, Downing Street highlights positive developments, such as a significant reduction in NHS England waiting lists and robust economic growth, which have been overshadowed by the week’s political upheaval.
Some cabinet allies acknowledge that Starmer may eventually have to accept that his leadership is untenable.
One cabinet member stated:
"If you get to the point, closer to the election, where he can’t win the election but somebody else could, where he’s clear in his own mind that it can’t be done, then he’d make sure there was an orderly transition. But he’s not there yet, and less than two years after winning a general election, nor should he be."
