Netanyahu's Initial Confidence and Ceasefire Announcement
When Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the launch of the Israeli-US military campaign against Iran at the end of February, he expressed strong confidence in the operation.
However, the tone of the statement from his office acknowledging the ceasefire announced overnight was considerably more restrained and emphasized that the decision was made by US President Donald Trump.
This contrasted sharply with the triumphant declarations from both the US and Iran, each claiming significant victories after five weeks of conflict.
In remarks broadcast on Wednesday night, Netanyahu stated that the ceasefire was not the conclusion of hostilities and that Israel had further objectives to accomplish, either through negotiation or by resuming fighting.
Where does this war leave Israel and its prime minister?
Unmet Goals and Continuing Conflict
At the war's outset, Netanyahu declared that the "goal of the operation is to put an end to the threat from the Ayatollah regime in Iran" and that "this operation will continue as long as necessary".
However, these objectives have not been fulfilled: Iran's armed forces remain engaged in combat, and the ruling clerical establishment persists, despite the deaths of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior figures in US-Israeli strikes.
The status of Iran's nuclear program and its stockpile of enriched uranium also remains unresolved. While Iran's ballistic missile arsenal has been degraded, it has continued launching missile barrages toward Israel throughout the conflict.
Missile alerts and explosions were reported in Jerusalem overnight, even after Trump's ceasefire announcement, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirming multiple missiles were fired from Iran.
Netanyahu appears to have overestimated the capacity of Israel and the US to defeat Iran's forces and effect a change in its ruling system.
Anshel Pfeffer, a veteran Israeli journalist and Netanyahu biographer, noted that the prime minister only referred to a "suspension" of hostilities pending US-Iran talks and has not publicly accepted that the war is over.
"Netanyahu's failure to achieve his stated objectives is not good for him," Pfeffer said, adding that there could be "some kind of rift opening up with the Americans" if the ceasefire was agreed upon without significant Israeli input.
Until now, Netanyahu and Trump had publicly displayed unity, but their goals may no longer fully align.
A full end to the war, if based on the "10-point proposal from Iran" referenced by Trump, will likely be viewed as a strategic success for Tehran, as it represents a list of demands from its leadership.
Political Reactions and Election Year Implications
Yair Lapid, leader of the Israeli opposition, described the situation as "never such a political disaster in our entire history" and criticized Netanyahu for Israel not being involved in decisions concerning core national security.
"The army did everything they asked of it, the public displayed incredible resilience, but Netanyahu failed politically, failed strategically, and did not meet any of the goals he himself set," Lapid said.
With 2024 being an election year in Israel, Netanyahu could potentially lose power within months.
Shira Efron, Israel policy chair at the US-based RAND Corporation, commented that Netanyahu "promised Israelis that this campaign would lead to the end of the Islamic regime, that by cutting the head of the snake, this war would remove an existential threat from Israel."
"Yet, the snake turned into a hydra," Efron said, describing the war as a "hard" sell to the Israeli public because there has been no regime change in Iran, the Iranians still possess enriched uranium, and the missile threat remains.
"The missile programme still exists and, for Israelis, whether 70 or 80 per cent of capabilities have been degraded, there hasn't been a discernible difference for those sheltering [from missiles] over the last five weeks."
Differing Perspectives on Achieved and Unachieved Goals
Yossi Kuperwasser, former Israeli military intelligence officer and current director of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), urged Israelis to distinguish between "practical achievable goals" and "wishful goals".
He stated that the "achievable goals were all completely achieved" since Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile production facilities were struck, and its military capabilities and leadership were "decimated".
However, the "wishful goals"—such as regime change via popular uprising, military removal of highly enriched uranium, and ending Iran's missile-launching capacity—have not occurred.
Political Challenges Within Israel and Ceasefire Controversies
Far-right members of Netanyahu's coalition government may reject any ceasefire agreement or an end to the war, posing a political challenge for the prime minister.
Wednesday was a public holiday in Israel marking the end of Passover, which may delay government reactions to the ceasefire.
A significant dispute has emerged over whether the ceasefire includes Lebanon, threatening the entire agreement.
Iran and Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who helped negotiate the ceasefire, stated that the deal covers Lebanon, where Israel has been fighting the Iranian-backed armed group Hezbollah.
However, Netanyahu's office declared the ceasefire "does not include Lebanon," and the IDF conducted what it described as the "biggest strikes" in Lebanon since the conflict began in March.
Lebanon's government reported that these strikes have killed at least 112 people and wounded over 830 across the country, including in Beirut.
Later, Trump told a PBS journalist that Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire agreement "because of Hezbollah." When asked about Israeli strikes, he replied: "It's part of the deal - everyone knows that. That's a separate skirmish." White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt later stated at a press conference that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire but that the country "will continue to be discussed" by the US, Israel, and other parties.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards issued a "stern warning" to the US and Israel, stating they would respond if Israel did not immediately end "aggressions against dear Lebanon."
In recent weeks, Israel has deployed ground forces into southern Lebanon and declared it will maintain control over the area south of the Litani River to establish a "security buffer zone."
Israeli forces have demolished homes and villages in this region, where the IDF says Hezbollah fighters operate, displacing hundreds of thousands of people. Israel has stated that residents will not be allowed to return until Hezbollah is removed.
Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel on the third day of the conflict in retaliation for Khamenei's killing and has continued such attacks over the past weeks.
The Lebanese government, along with countries including the UK, France, Italy, Germany, and Canada, have called for the ceasefire to apply in Lebanon.
Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun accused Israel of repeatedly showing contempt for "all international laws and norms."
How Netanyahu responds, and whether Trump supports him, will be critical to the ceasefire's future.
