Cartel Violence Threatens Mexico's World Cup Hosting
The recent surge in violence across Mexico, which began on Sunday, represents one of the most severe outbreaks the country has experienced in years. Experts have indicated that this unrest, linked to drug cartel activity, could jeopardize Mexico's role as a co-host for the upcoming Fifa World Cup this summer.
The Jalisco New Generation (CJNG) cartel, recognized as one of Mexico's most powerful and feared criminal organizations, has engaged in armed confrontations with the Mexican military. This includes gun battles, road blockades, and the burning of vehicles, all in retaliation to the killing of its leader, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as 'El Mencho,' during a military operation.
The violence initially erupted in Jalisco state, located in the central-western region of Mexico, where authorities have declared a code red security alert. Since then, the unrest has expanded to at least twelve other regions. Online videos depict armed cartel members patrolling streets and smoke rising over urban areas.
Within a 24-hour period, at least 25 National Guard officers have lost their lives amid the clashes.
Guadalajara, the capital of Jalisco with a population exceeding one million, is set to host four World Cup matches this summer. Additionally, Mexico City and Monterrey are scheduled to host five and four matches respectively.
"When you push down on the cartels you do get pushback - the danger is that it can be very difficult to manage a security situation that spirals out of control," said Javier Eskauriatza, assistant professor of criminal law at the University of Nottingham.
The death of El Mencho has created a power vacuum that may lead to instability and intensified conflict as rival factions compete for leadership.
"In general the cartels have an economic interest in making sure the World Cup is peaceful," Dr. Eskauriatza added. "Yes they pay off politicians and local police forces, but they also buy restaurants and own hotels. They are part of the economic system. It is useful for them if Brits, Americans, and others go to Mexico, spend their money and have a good time."
has reached out to Fifa for comment regarding the situation.
Watch: Vehicles set ablaze across Mexico amid violence
Moderate Risk for Tourists This Summer
The CJNG cartel is estimated to be worth over £10 billion and reportedly has tens of thousands of members. Since its establishment in 2009, it has been implicated in numerous massacres, kidnappings, and the assassinations of political figures.
Despite their criminal activities, some cartel members maintain a degree of popularity in local communities by funding infrastructure projects and public facilities.
"The response by the CJNG is, in a way, required by the rules of the game - if you have your leader nabbed, you have to respond, otherwise you look weak," explained Dr. Eskauriatza. "They are not idiots - they know that social media will film and amplify these videos for them and they have made sure the response looks national."
The U.S. government has advised American citizens in Jalisco to remain indoors until further notice. Meanwhile, Canada, also a World Cup co-host, has canceled flights to Puerto Vallarta airport. Flight tracking applications have shown numerous planes returning to their points of origin globally.
"In terms of tourists, I would say there will be a moderate risk for them," said Dr. Karina Garcia-Reyes, senior lecturer in criminology at UWE Bristol. "Unless more military operations are conducted this week, I would expect that the authorities in the most affected areas will be able to address potential risks, so overall I would expect tourists to be safe as long as they follow the authorities' indications."
Impact of Violence on the World Cup
Security arrangements for the World Cup have already faced scrutiny, particularly regarding the deployment of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers to major U.S. cities under President Donald Trump. This has coincided with the deaths of two U.S. citizens by federal agents this year and sparked widespread protests.
Football Supporters Europe recently expressed deep concern over the increasing militarization of police forces in the United States.
Attention has now shifted to Mexico and its capacity to ensure the safety of visiting fans.
On Sunday, four football matches—two in the top division and two in the second division—were postponed due to the ongoing violence.
"People in Mexico are hoping that this is a one-off retaliation and that as the cartel reorganises itself, things will settle down," said Monica Serrano Carreto, professor of international relations at El Colegio de Mexico. "But there is also a risk that this leads to a new period of instability, unpredictability and the violence continues.
"The type of weapons that the cartel has access to means that a military-style confrontation in the aftermath is inevitable - the government would have known that. We have seen in the past they [the cartel] even have weapons capable of shooting down helicopters.
"I think it will already have had an impact on how people view coming to Mexico because the images are top of the news around the world."
Cartel members have set fire to transport infrastructure, banks, pharmacies, and other local businesses.
Mexico has faced increasing political pressure to combat cartel activity over the past year.
"This response is not unique but is very serious and very high scale," said Jon Benjamin, UK ambassador to Mexico from 2021 to 2024. "President Trump has designated the cartels as terrorist organisations and Mexico has already handed over dozens of cartel figures to them. The Trump factor is very important in what is happening."
In recent years, young Mexicans have organized more frequent anti-cartel protests in major cities.
