Marine Le Pen’s Appeal Verdict and Its Significance for France
Marine Le Pen has led her National Rally party to significant electoral success, and her political future now depends on a decision by the Paris appeal court.
On Tuesday, Le Pen will learn whether she is eligible to run for the French presidency in the 2027 elections. The Paris appeal court will rule at 13:30 (12:30 BST) on whether to uphold her embezzlement conviction.
Le Pen, 57, leader of the National Rally (RN), has run for president three times, finishing second to Emmanuel Macron in both 2017 and 2022. With less than 10 months remaining before the next election, she currently leads in the polls. Should she be barred from running, her deputy Jordan Bardella would likely become the party’s candidate, making the verdict highly consequential for France’s political landscape.
What Is the Appeal About?
This appeal will determine Le Pen’s political future and effectively mark the start of the 2027 presidential campaign. The first round of voting is scheduled for 18 April 2027, with a run-off on 2 May.
Le Pen was banned from holding public office for five years on 31 March 2025 after a court found her guilty of embezzling €1.4 million (£1.2 million) in European Parliament funds. These funds were used to pay party employees rather than parliamentary assistants between 2004 and 2016. Le Pen served as a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) from 2004 to 2017.
In addition to the ban, she received a four-year jail sentence, with two years suspended and two years to be served under house arrest with an electronic tag.
The court ruled that Le Pen either approved or tolerated the fraudulent employment scheme, which disqualified her from the 2027 presidential race.
During the appeal hearings in January and February, Le Pen denied orchestrating the scheme but admitted to making "a mistake" that resulted in some parliamentary aides working "for the benefit of the party."
Prosecutors have requested that the original five-year ban remain in place, along with a four-year prison term comprising one year under electronic tagging and three years suspended.
Le Pen has stated she is not afraid of the verdict but believes it would be "not possible" to run for president if required to wear an electronic tag.
Who Is Marine Le Pen?
Marine Le Pen was found by judges in 2025 to be "at the heart" of the fake jobs scheme in the European Parliament.
She is the youngest daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, who led the far-right National Front (FN) from 1972. In 2011, Marine took over the party leadership with a goal to "detoxify" its image. She eventually severed ties with her father in 2015, expelling him over his Holocaust-related remarks.
In 2018, she rebranded the party as Rassemblement National (National Rally). Although defeated twice by Emmanuel Macron in presidential elections, she led RN to its best-ever performance in 2024, securing a hard-right alliance of 143 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly.
Le Pen portrays herself as a victim of the French justice system, claiming she faces "a difference in treatment" compared to other political leaders whose parties were found guilty of fraud.
However, the original trial judges concluded she had "authoritatively and with determination embraced the system established by her father" and was "at the heart" of the fake jobs scheme.
Possible Verdict Outcomes
Acquittal: If Le Pen is acquitted, she will be eligible to run for president with her reputation intact. This outcome is considered unlikely.
Guilty: If found guilty and banned from office for more than two years (counting from 31 March 2025), she will be ineligible to stand in the election, as the ban period continues to run.
Guilty with Reduced Ban: If the ban is reduced to two years or less, she would be free to run.
Guilty with Electronic Tag: Should the court follow prosecutors’ recommendation of a four-year jail term, she would serve one year with an electronic tag and three years suspended. Le Pen has emphasized that a presidential candidate must be "completely free to move about" and has expressed concerns about restrictions on holding rallies or attending markets.
Appealing Against the Appeal: Le Pen could challenge a guilty verdict at France’s highest court, the Court of Cassation, within 10 days. However, this process could take months and hinder her campaign efforts. She has indicated she would not pursue this option. Even if acquitted, prosecutors might still appeal to the top court.
Le Pen’s Statements Ahead of the Verdict
Le Pen has expressed calmness ahead of the ruling and stated that fear is unfamiliar to her. She acknowledged that being barred from running would be "undoubtedly painful" and warned that the decision could impact France’s democratic functioning.
"Whatever happens I won't be dead, whatever happens I'll continue to fight for my ideas,"
she told the news channel LCI last week. She added that the difference would be shifting from a presidential candidate to a political activist.
Le Pen plans to announce her intentions on the main 20:00 news program on TF1 following the verdict.
Le Pen’s Plan B: Jordan Bardella
Jordan Bardella has been part of Le Pen’s team since his early 20s and has led the National Rally as party chairman since 2022.
Following Le Pen’s conviction, it became clear she would need a backup plan. She designated Bardella as her potential stand-in candidate.
At a recent event, Bardella told supporters:
"I want to reiterate my total support, my total friendship, and that I'm committed to her in politics, to see her elected president of the republic."
Le Pen has stated that if she becomes president, Bardella would serve as prime minister. However, she is prepared to hand him the presidential candidacy if she is barred from running, pledging to support him with "great energy, great conviction and great confidence."
Comparing Bardella and Le Pen as Candidates
The National Rally promotes a message of unity, and the concept of a Plan B has become widely accepted. Bardella currently polls marginally better than Le Pen, with both polling above 30% for the first round.
Political opponents mock the idea that Le Pen would simply step aside for Bardella. They argue she would pose a greater threat in a second-round run-off due to his relative inexperience; Bardella will turn 31 in September.
Conservative Republicans candidate Bruno Retailleau previously remarked that while the French appreciate having a 40-year-old president in Macron, they might be less enthusiastic about a 30-year-old president.
Other Individuals on Trial
In March 2025, twenty-four people were convicted, including European Parliament members and party officials. Twelve have appealed their convictions.
Among them are Louis Aliot, RN vice-president and mayor of Perpignan, who received a six-month jail term to be served at home with an electronic tag, and Nicolas Bay, former National Front secretary general, who received the same sentence.
Bruno Gollnisch, another National Front figure, was sentenced to one year under electronic tagging, while Catherine Griset, a former close aide to Le Pen, was banned from public office for two years.
Wallerand de Saint-Just, former National Front treasurer, received a one-year sentence with an electronic tag.
