Former Minister Critiques Aukus as a Flawed Defence Strategy
Gareth Evans, former Labor foreign affairs minister, has described the Aukus defence pact as one of the worst foreign policy decisions ever made by an Australian government. He asserts that the agreement is primarily driven by the United States’ interest in countering Chinese nuclear threats to its mainland, rather than Australia's strategic benefit.
Evans, who served as a cabinet minister under the Hawke and Keating governments, provided testimony at an independent public inquiry on Thursday examining the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the US, and the UK. He emphasized that the planned transfer and construction of submarines to Australia, scheduled to begin in the early 2030s, essentially extends the American naval fleet rather than establishing an independent Australian capability.
He further warned that a future US administration would unlikely intervene to defend Australia in the event of an existential attack. Instead, US assistance would be contingent on threats to its own military assets located on Australian soil.
"The notion that extended nuclear deterrence justifies our prostration – that the US really would be prepared to sacrifice San Francisco for Sydney, let alone Miami for Melbourne – is, and always has been, a ludicrous delusion," Evans stated.
Challenges in Submarine Delivery and Construction
Evans, who was foreign affairs minister from 1988 to 1996, highlighted concerns regarding the delivery timeline of Virginia-class submarines from the US, expected to commence in 2032. He noted that delays and shortages affecting the US fleet could impede this schedule. Additionally, the five new SSN-Aukus attack submarines, to be jointly built by the UK and Australia, present significant technical and logistical challenges.
He remarked that the complexity and timeline of this second phase demand even greater optimism than that required for the American vessels.
"Every report coming out of the UK indicates that its defence-industrial base is presently under extraordinary stress, with submarine building schedules tightening and costs increasing, and with every prospect of further deterioration, notwithstanding Australia’s commitment to spending $4.5bn over 10 years to help boost production rates."
Evans criticized the government’s projected cost estimates for the deal as "wholly speculative." He explained that the US views these submarines primarily as supplementary assets embedded within US military command structures, tasked with locating, tracking, attacking, and destroying Chinese submarines perceived as threats to the US mainland.
"Australian ministers have never explicitly conceded as much but the conclusion is inescapable that from the outset the whole enterprise has been viewed through an alliance reinforcement lens, with this role for the boats being the understood quid pro quo."
Aukus and Australia's Strategic Position
Evans described Aukus as a doubling down on Australia's commitment to the US alliance, which, he argues, effectively increases Australia’s vulnerability by making it a potential target in the event of a military conflict.
The public inquiry, which is independent and supported by trade unions and the Australian Peace and Security Forum, held its first hearing on Thursday in Melbourne. The inquiry is led by commissioners including former Labor minister and former defence chief Chris Barrie.
Current Labor ministers have faced criticism for their stance on Aukus, with some accused of opposing the pact from the outset.
The hearing also features testimony from nuclear non-proliferation advocates Tilman Ruff, Richard Tanter, and Dave Sweeney, as well as retired diplomat John Lander.
Given the inquiry commissioners’ scepticism towards Aukus, public hearings will continue nationwide before a report is delivered in October.
Government Response and Ongoing Developments
On Thursday, Foreign Minister Penny Wong stated that she and Defence Minister Richard Marles had engaged in regular discussions with their UK counterparts regarding Aukus.
The UK government has confirmed that the first steel for the jointly built submarines will be cut next year, despite the UK’s existing submarine program experiencing significant delays and cost overruns.
"This submarine capability is central to assuring Australian sovereignty in a much more contested world," Wong said.
"It is a capability we need in a world that is more contested. There is no doubt that this project has its challenges. There is no doubt it is ambitious. But there is also no doubt that we do need this capability to assure our interests. And we are very focused on delivering it."
Labor is actively countering criticism of the Aukus plan ahead of the party’s national conference scheduled in Adelaide next month.
