China’s Complex Relationship with North Korea
For Chinese leader Xi Jinping, North Korea remains a neighbor that China cannot fully control yet cannot afford to lose. The two countries often describe their relationship as one "forged in blood," a reference to their alliance during the Korean War. However, in recent years, mistrust has strained their ties, prompting Beijing to attempt to reassert influence over this strategically vital yet unpredictable partner.
China seeks stability along its border and aims to maintain influence in Pyongyang without becoming entangled in crises stemming from North Korea's nuclear ambitions. Consequently, Xi's visit this week is likely motivated more by leverage than by friendship.
Seoul anticipates that Xi may attempt to position China as a mediator between North Korea and the United States, but Western diplomatic sources suggest Beijing may have other objectives. Following Xi's meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin last week, China appears increasingly concerned about the growing partnership between Pyongyang and Moscow. Xi may want to ensure that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un remains under Chinese influence, especially as China expands its global presence.
A Thaw in Strained Ties
The cooling of relations between Beijing and Pyongyang has been noticeable, albeit subtle. The two countries barely acknowledged the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations in October 2024, with public messaging remaining muted. China's ambassador did not attend North Korea's founding celebrations the previous month, and there were no senior-level exchanges throughout the year. This contrasts sharply with Pyongyang's increasingly warm relationship with Moscow.
North Korea's growing closeness with Russia has unsettled Beijing. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Pyongyang has expanded military cooperation with Moscow, culminating in a mutual defense pact signed during Putin's 2024 visit to Pyongyang.
According to a BBC investigation, approximately 2,300 North Korean soldiers have died fighting for Russia in Ukraine. Pyongyang is also accused of supplying ammunition to support Russia's war effort in exchange for oil and aid. This development has alarmed Washington and its allies and has quietly rattled China.
"China wants to ensure that its interests vis-a-vis North Korea are protected at a time of rapid convergence between Moscow and Pyongyang," says Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
China maintains only one formal defense treaty, and that is with North Korea. Therefore, Beijing is unlikely to welcome a scenario where Russia becomes the dominant influence in Pyongyang. A more confident and less dependent Kim Jong Un would reduce Chinese leverage.
In response, Beijing has sought to reset the relationship. Late last year, Xi invited Kim to a military parade in Beijing, keeping him prominently by his side alongside Putin. This was their first formal summit in six years. Xi praised the two leaders as "good neighbours, good friends and good comrades bound by a shared destiny," calling for closer strategic coordination. Notably, public statements omitted any mention of North Korea's nuclear arsenal.
Lee Seong-hyon, a visiting scholar at the Harvard University Asia Center, notes that Beijing has "mixed feelings" about the growing partnership between Pyongyang and Moscow.
"On one hand, the partnership distracts Washington and complicates US strategy in multiple theaters, which indirectly benefits China," Lee says. "But expanding military cooperation between Russia and North Korea could spark a stronger trilateral military response from the US, Japan, and South Korea, which would worry Beijing."
This explains why China does not endorse Pyongyang's nuclear program, as that would increase US involvement in the region and strengthen its alliances. However, China is also not confronting the issue directly. In 2022, China and Russia vetoed a US-led United Nations resolution to impose new sanctions over North Korea's missile tests.
Victor Cha, president of the foreign policy department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, states, "If China takes a strong stance against Pyongyang's nuclear programme, this would only push North Korea more into the arms of Putin."
The Pragmatic Partner
Despite tensions, Kim Jong Un cannot afford to alienate his largest source of aid. China's exports to North Korea surged to around $2.3 billion (£1.7 billion) last year, the highest level in six years. Passenger train services between Beijing and Pyongyang resumed earlier this year after a six-year hiatus.
Analysts view these developments as a calculated effort by Beijing to draw Pyongyang back into its sphere of influence.
For Kim, this is a pragmatic choice. If the war in Ukraine ends, Russia's need for North Korean support could diminish. Unlike an isolated Putin, Xi has been welcoming world leaders to Beijing, making China a more valuable partner. Kim thus needs to ensure he is not left relying solely on a weakening Russia.
However, the relationship between China and North Korea has been troubled from the outset. Kim Jong Un inherited power with priorities differing from his father's. While Kim Jong Il frequently visited China and relied on Beijing's backing, his son accelerated North Korea's nuclear program. In his first six years in power, Kim oversaw approximately 90 ballistic missile tests and four nuclear detonations—more than his father and grandfather combined.
This escalation alarmed Beijing. The execution of Kim's uncle, Jang Song Thaek—considered by China as a stabilizing figure—further deepened the rift. Xi responded with rare diplomatic signals of displeasure, visiting South Korea in 2014 before ever meeting Kim, a move widely perceived as a snub. North Korea retaliated by calling China a "turncoat and our enemy."
It was only in 2018, as sanctions over the nuclear program intensified, that Kim made his first known foreign trip, traveling by armored train to Beijing. This meeting marked the beginning of a cautious recalibration.
Kim later met with US and South Korean leaders, but always after consulting China, sending a clear message that Pyongyang would not negotiate without Beijing's backing.
Today, North Korea serves as both a buffer and a burden for China. It keeps US forces at arm's length but its weapons tests destabilize the region. Kim seeks Chinese protection without Chinese control. Neither side fully trusts the other, but both believe they need one another, which suffices to keep dialogue ongoing.
Additional reporting by Kelly Ng
