Heightened Security and Preparations for Trump’s Visit
Security measures around Beijing's historic Tiananmen Square have been intensified for several days amid circulating social media rumors of a special parade or a large, choreographed event. Preparations for this significant occasion began quietly, but China appears poised to stage an impressive welcome for US President Donald Trump.
The visit itinerary includes formal talks, a banquet, and a visit to the Temple of Heaven, a complex of imperial temples historically used by emperors to pray for a bountiful harvest. Both Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping anticipate that the summit will yield important outcomes. This meeting between the leaders of the world's two most powerful nations is expected to be one of the most consequential diplomatic encounters in recent years.
For several months, US-China relations have not been a primary focus for Trump, who has concentrated on the ongoing conflict with Iran, military operations in the Western Hemisphere, and domestic issues. However, this week marks a shift in priorities as the future of global trade, escalating tensions in Taiwan, and competition in advanced technologies come to the forefront.
Economically, the ongoing trade war with the US and the conflict in Iran present challenges for Xi, but ideologically and politically, they offer leverage, giving him a perceived advantage. This visit could lay the foundation for either cooperation or conflict in the years ahead.
The Iran Whisperer?
China is quietly attempting to act as a peacemaker in the war now entering its third month. Alongside Pakistan, Beijing has taken on a mediator role in the US-Israel conflict with Iran.
In March, officials from Beijing and Islamabad proposed a five-point plan aimed at achieving a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Behind the scenes, Chinese officials have been encouraging their Iranian counterparts to engage in negotiations.
Despite its outward show of strength, China is eager for an end to the war. The country’s economy is grappling with slower growth and rising unemployment. Increasing oil prices have driven up costs for petrochemical-based products, including textiles and plastics, with some producers experiencing cost increases of up to 20%.
China possesses substantial oil reserves and has taken a leading role in renewables and electric vehicles, which has mitigated some effects of the fuel crisis. Nevertheless, the war is exacerbating difficulties for China’s sluggish, export-dependent economy. If China is to assist the US in resolving the conflict, it will likely seek concessions in return.
The recent visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Beijing appeared designed to demonstrate China’s influence in the Middle East.
The US has been monitoring these developments closely.
"I hope the Chinese tell him what he needs to be told,"said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
"And that is that what you are doing in the Strait is causing you to be globally isolated. You're the bad guy in this."
The US has also sought to persuade China not to block a new UN Security Council resolution condemning Iran’s attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, after China and Russia vetoed an earlier proposal.
"I think if we're going to bring Iran back to the negotiating table in an enduring way, I think that the United States recognises that China is going to play some role,"said Ali Wyne, Senior Research and Advocacy Advisor for US-China relations at the International Crisis Group.
President Trump has appeared unconcerned by China’s close ties with Tehran. Although the US recently sanctioned a China-based refinery for transporting Iranian oil, Trump downplayed any Chinese support for Iran during the conflict.
"It is what it is, right?"he told a US journalist.
"We do things, too, against them."
Taiwan’s Future
The Trump administration has sent mixed signals regarding Taiwan. In December, the US announced an $11 billion arms deal with Taiwan, angering the Chinese government. However, Trump has downplayed the US commitment to defend Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory.
"He considers it to be a part of China,"Trump said of Xi,
"and that's up to him, what he's going to be doing."
Trump has also criticized Taiwan for not adequately reimbursing the US for its security guarantees, stating that Taiwan
"doesn't give us anything."Last year, he imposed a 15% tariff on Taiwan and accused it of intellectual property theft related to semiconductor manufacturing.
Last week, Rubio stated that Taiwan will be discussed during the visit, with the objective of preventing the issue from escalating tensions between the two superpowers.
"We don't need any destabilising events to occur with regards to Taiwan or anywhere in the Indo-Pacific,"he said.
"And I think that's to the mutual benefit of both the United States and the Chinese."
China has indicated that Taiwan is a priority topic. Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed hope that the US would make the
"right choices"during a call with Rubio.
Beijing has increased military pressure by deploying warplanes and naval vessels around Taiwan almost daily.
Some analysts speculate that Chinese officials may push to alter the wording regarding Taiwan in the 1982 US-China communique. Washington’s current policy states it does not support Taiwan independence. Beijing might seek stronger language such as
"the US opposes Taiwan independence."
"I just don't think that President Xi is going to go for that,"said John Delury, senior fellow at the Centre on US-China Relations at the Asia Society.
"Even if Trump says something kind of left field that looks like some capitulation on Taiwan, because he's not so careful with his use of language, the Chinese know better than to put much stock in that, because he can reverse it with a Truth Social post a week later."
Critical Trade Talks
Throughout much of 2025, the US and China appeared on the brink of a renewed trade war that could destabilize the global economy. Trump repeatedly adjusted tariffs on China, at times exceeding 100%.
China responded by limiting exports of rare earth minerals to the US and reducing purchases of American agricultural products, impacting farmers in key states that supported Trump.
Relations have cooled since Trump and Xi met in South Korea last October. A February Supreme Court ruling limiting the president’s unilateral tariff authority also tempered Trump’s more unpredictable trade policies.
Nonetheless, the Beijing summit will involve extensive discussions. Trump is expected to press China to increase purchases of US agricultural goods, while China will likely urge the US to drop a recent trade investigation into unfair business practices that could enable Trump to reinstate higher tariffs.
This presents a challenge for the US.
"It could be tough for the US to give up investigations of all unfair Chinese trade practices given how widespread and distorting the latter still are,"said Michael O'Hanlon, Phil Knight Chair in Defense and Strategy at the Brookings Institution.
The Trump administration is inviting CEOs from major companies such as Nvidia, Apple, Exxon, and Boeing to accompany the president on this visit, according to .
While China is less dependent on US trade than during Trump’s first term, Xi will seek a successful meeting to maintain global economic stability.
China is now the leading trade partner for over 120 countries, but Xi will be cautious not to appear overconfident during Trump’s visit.
"So long as the visit proceeds smoothly and Trump concludes he was treated respectfully, then the uneasy calm in the bilateral relationship will endure. If, on the other hand, Trump leaves feeling disrespected or trifled with, then he could have a change of heart,"said Ryan Hass, Director of the John L Thornton China Centre at the Brookings Institution.
The AI Future
China is investing heavily in artificial intelligence (AI) and humanoid robots, which Xi describes as
"new productive forces"intended to drive economic growth.
Many US policymakers believe that Chinese policy involves co-opting or outright stealing US technology to advance domestic industries. This has led to export restrictions on advanced microprocessors, despite opposition from American manufacturers.
The resolution of the contentious issue surrounding Chinese ownership and operation of the social media app TikTok was a rare positive outcome in US-China technology relations, which are often marked by suspicion and accusations.
The competition extends to AI development, a critical technological frontier. The US has accused Chinese companies such as DeepSeek of stealing American AI technology.
"An opening chapter of an AI cold war is emerging,"said Yingyi Ma from the John L Thornton China Centre at the Brookings Institution.
"The White House has accused China of 'industrial scale' theft of American AI models, while Beijing reportedly moved to prevent Meta from acquiring Manus, a Chinese-founded AI start-up now based in Singapore. The deeper contest is not over who copies whose model, but over the talent capable of building the next generation of frontier AI."
China’s robots have been showcased performing Kung Fu dance moves and competing in marathons faster than humans in Beijing.
While Chinese companies excel at manufacturing robot bodies, many are still developing the programming for their AI brains. High-end computer chips are essential for this, and these are primarily sourced from the US.
China could leverage its dominance in rare earth minerals, which are crucial for modern technology including smartphones, wind turbines, and jet engines. China processes around 90% of the world’s rare earth minerals, a resource Trump has shown interest in.
This dynamic could lead to a deal where the US gains access to Chinese rare earths in exchange for supplying advanced chips. This represents China’s strategic equivalent of the Strait of Hormuz, with the ability to halt supply at any time.
Summit Overview and Outlook
Despite the extensive policy issues to address, Trump’s visit will be brief and intense, with meetings and events scheduled for Thursday and Friday.
While there may be limited time for substantive agreements, even a short encounter could influence the trajectory of US-China negotiations and relations for years to come.
BBC InDepth provides in-depth analysis and fresh perspectives on major global issues. Emma Barnett and John Simpson curate thought-provoking deep reads and analysis every Saturday. Readers can for the newsletter for regular updates.
