Exit Polls Signal Strong Support for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi
Japan’s conservative ruling party is set to significantly consolidate its power following exit polls forecasting a landslide victory in Sunday’s lower house elections.
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was projected by a public broadcaster NHK exit poll to secure between 274 and 328 seats out of 465 total seats, surpassing the 233 seats required to regain the majority it lost in 2024. Including seats won by its junior coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, the coalition could command between 302 and 366 seats, NHK reported.
The elections for the lower house of Japan’s parliament took place on a freezing day with heavy snow impacting many regions. This vote is widely regarded as an early public endorsement of the new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi.
Takaichi, who assumed office last autumn as Japan’s prime minister, had pledged to resign if her coalition failed to secure a simple majority.
Challenges Ahead for Takaichi Despite Projected Victory
Despite the anticipated electoral success, Takaichi faces significant challenges, including concerns about her management of Japan’s public finances and her handling of escalating tensions with China over Taiwan’s future.
To appeal to voters, Takaichi introduced a $135 billion stimulus package aimed at alleviating the cost-of-living crisis. She later promised to suspend the 8% consumption (sales) tax on food for two years, a measure expected to reduce annual revenue by ¥5 trillion ($30 billion).
These fiscal policies have unsettled financial markets and caused currency fluctuations, leading some analysts to question her approach, especially given Japan’s debt exceeds twice its GDP—the highest debt burden among advanced economies.
Following a rapid introduction to international diplomacy, including meetings with Donald Trump and Xi Jinping late last year, Takaichi ignited controversy in November by suggesting Japan might become involved militarily if China attempted to invade Taiwan.
In response, China advised its citizens against traveling to Japan and discouraged young people from studying there, citing “safety concerns.” These measures disrupted cultural exchanges and ended decades of "sister city" relationships.
Takaichi’s refusal to retract her statements may have strained Sino-Japanese relations but resonated positively with many voters.
Expert Analysis on Election Outcome and Future Relations
Margarita Estevez-Abe, associate professor of political science at Syracuse University, commented on the election results:
“Now she doesn’t have to worry about any elections until 2028, when the next upper house elections will take place. So the best scenario for Japan is that Takaichi kind of takes a deep breath and focuses on amending the relationship with China.”
However, some analysts warn that if Takaichi proceeds with the consumption tax cut, financial markets could react swiftly and negatively.
Seiji Inada, managing director at consultancy FGS Global, stated:
“If Takaichi wins big, she will have more political room to follow through on key commitments, including on consumption-tax cuts. Markets could react in the following days, and the yen could come under renewed pressure.”
Voting Amid Severe Weather and Low Turnout
Blizzard conditions in some areas made voting in Sunday’s election, the first held in winter in 35 years, a challenge for many citizens.
Kazushige Cho, a 54-year-old teacher, expressed his determination to vote for the LDP despite the harsh weather:
“She has shown strong leadership and pushes various policies forward. I think things could turn out quite well.”
Cho spoke outside a polling station in a small town in Niigata prefecture, where snow depth exceeded two meters.
The severe weather caused widespread disruptions, including suspension of services on dozens of train lines and cancellation of 230 domestic flights, according to the transport ministry.
Turnout was reported at 21.6% with four hours remaining before polls closed, 2.65 percentage points lower than at the same time during the 2024 lower house election, according to the Nikkei business newspaper citing the internal affairs ministry.
Takaichi’s Rising Popularity and Opposition Weakness
Takaichi’s personal popularity has revitalized the LDP’s prospects since she won the party presidency in October, succeeding Shigeru Ishiba.
Under Ishiba, the LDP and its then coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in both houses of parliament amid public dissatisfaction over a controversial security bill and rising costs of food and essentials.
The LDP, which has governed Japan for most of the past 70 years, benefited once again from a fragmented and uninspiring opposition.
The main opposition, the Centrist Reform Alliance—formed weeks earlier by two existing parties—was expected to suffer heavy losses, raising questions about its future viability.
Implications of Election Results
The final seat count will be announced late Sunday. If the Takaichi-led coalition secures an absolute majority of 261 seats, it will control parliamentary committees, facilitating the passage of budgets and other legislation.
A super-majority of 310 seats would enable the coalition to override the upper house, where the LDP-led alliance lost its majority in July last year.
