Election Victory for Armenia's Pro-Western Government
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's party has secured a significant victory in a pivotal election regarded as crucial in determining the country's trajectory towards closer ties with the West.
Pashinyan's centrist Civil Contract Party obtained 49.8% of the vote, with the Strong Armenia Alliance finishing second at 23.2%. The Armenia Alliance came third with 9.9% of the vote.
The election, held on Sunday, was the first general election since Armenia, a small South Caucasus nation with a population of three million, experienced a severe military defeat by Azerbaijan in 2023.
This vote was widely seen as a referendum on the prime minister's efforts to strengthen relations with Western countries despite increasing economic pressure from Russia, Armenia's largest trading partner and traditional ally.
Having held office since 2018, Pashinyan declared victory on Monday after early results indicated his party had surpassed the 50% threshold.
"Armenian people voted for peace, regional prosperity and cooperation," he said.
The election attracted considerable international attention. On Monday, France and the European Union, among other European powers, congratulated Pashinyan and commended Armenia's enhanced engagement with the West.
Civil Contract's success occurred despite a decline in Pashinyan's domestic support, which dropped from 54% in 2021 to approximately 30% according to recent polls.
A total of 19 parties and alliances participated in the election, though only a few secured enough votes to gain seats in the national assembly. Voter turnout was reported at 59% by the electoral commission.
The conservative Prosperous Armenia party, led by businessman Gagik Tsarukyan, placed fourth with 4% of the vote.
Alongside the Strong Armenia Alliance, led by Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, and the Armenia Alliance, headed by former President Robert Kocharyan, these parties are considered pro-Russian.
"We will continue the course of rapprochement with the West, but we will also continue our participation and membership in the Eurasian Economic Union," Pashinyan stated on Monday.
Russian Influence and Economic Pressures
In late May, Russian President Vladimir Putin urged Armenia to hold a referendum "as soon as possible" to decide whether to join the European Union or remain in the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), a customs bloc from which Armenia benefits economically.
Last month, Putin outlined the economic disadvantages Armenia might face if it pursued closer ties with the West, emphasizing that "the crisis in Ukraine began with efforts to move toward EU accession."
Russia supplies Armenia with gas at $177.50 (£132.90) per 1,000 cubic meters, while European market prices, as Putin highlighted to Pashinyan in April, exceed $600.
In the two weeks prior to the election, Moscow imposed bans on the export of Armenian flowers, mineral water, cognac, fresh vegetables, and fruit.
Pashinyan's Western Alignment and Peace Efforts
Pashinyan's initiatives to pivot Armenia away from Moscow include enacting legislation to initiate the process of EU membership and accelerating peace negotiations with neighboring Azerbaijan through a US-mediated agreement. This peace process has earned him endorsement from US President Donald Trump.
Earlier this year, Pashinyan hosted a major summit in Yerevan featuring EU leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Despite Pashinyan's cordial relations with European leaders, Armenia has not yet attained EU candidate status, and full membership remains a distant prospect.
The decline in Pashinyan's popularity is largely attributed to the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous enclave within Azerbaijan that was home to approximately 100,000 ethnic Armenians until Azerbaijan regained control by force in 2023.
Critics have faulted Pashinyan for making concessions aimed at peace with Azerbaijan, including his refusal to campaign for the release of former Nagorno-Karabakh leaders imprisoned in Azerbaijan.
The peace agreement with Azerbaijan remains contentious within Armenia, with a recent poll indicating 44% public support and 41% opposition.
Additional reporting by Rayhan Demytrie, Caucasus correspondent.
