Warmer Summer and Heatwave Risks Predicted
The UK is forecast to experience a warmer-than-average summer with a heightened possibility of additional heatwaves, according to the latest meteorological predictions.
On 1 June, the Met Office issued its three-month summer outlook, coinciding with the start of meteorological summer, indicating a greater likelihood of hotter weather throughout June.
Extending through to the end of August, the forecast highlights "an increased chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts" for the entire summer period.
This outlook follows a late spring heatwave that broke temperature records across the UK.
A new all-time May temperature record of 35.1°C was recorded at Kew Gardens, London, surpassing the previous mark of 32.8°C set in 1944.
Additionally, yellow and amber heat health alerts were issued for the first time this year.
Long-range forecasts from both the Met Office and MeteoGroup—providers of BBC Weather data—indicate the potential for further heatwaves during the summer months.
MeteoGroup notes the possibility of "a few notable high temperature spikes" and anticipates "above-average temperatures" for June, July, and August, with "significant bursts" of heat expected across the UK and Europe.
The Met Office explains that the forecasted higher-than-average temperatures reflect a doubling in the likelihood of a hotter summer compared to the 1991-2020 reference period, consistent with ongoing climate warming.
Will Drought Conditions Return?
Water levels in reservoirs across England fell significantly in September 2025 following a dry spring and summer.
There is less consensus regarding summer rainfall totals, with forecasters offering differing views on the season's precipitation.
MeteoGroup predicts a drier summer period, whereas the Met Office suggests rainfall could be average or even above normal.
MeteoGroup's long-range forecast indicates below-average precipitation overall, particularly during June and July in England and Wales, while Scotland is expected to receive rainfall near average levels.
Conversely, the Met Office states that "the chance of a wet season [summer] are slightly higher than normal."
While these long-range forecasts provide an overview of expected UK conditions over the summer months, recent years have demonstrated considerable variability in rainfall patterns.
In 2025, although the UK average summer rainfall was 84% of normal, northern and western regions experienced wetter-than-average conditions, whereas central, eastern, and southern areas were much drier, receiving less than half of expected rainfall.
Droughts were declared across much of England in 2025 after a very dry spring, leading to hosepipe bans during the summer due to increased water demand.
Warmest Spring on Record Declared for England and Wales
As summer approaches, Environment Agency data indicates that most UK reservoirs are near or above seasonal averages following a wet winter.
However, spring was notably dry in parts of southern and eastern England, with some areas receiving only about a quarter to a third of their typical rainfall.
Locations in Essex, Cambridgeshire, Suffolk, and Dorset experienced one of their driest springs on record.
Rivers in some parts of England are beginning to fall to "notably" or "exceptionally low" levels, with Thames Water, Anglian Water, and Yorkshire Water already reporting stresses on water supply.
Any developing heatwave may impose short-term pressures on water companies.
During last week's heatwave, Thames Water observed a sharp increase in water demand, reporting that "over one billion litres of extra water were used over the bank holiday weekend compared to the same weekend in 2025."
Meanwhile, South East Water experienced supply interruptions affecting 18,000 homes due to extremely high demand during the hot spell.
How Are Seasonal Forecasts Produced?
Seasonal forecasts are developed to assist healthcare providers, energy suppliers, and government agencies in planning for the upcoming three months.
These forecasts represent the forefront of meteorological science and are generated by analyzing large-scale weather patterns known as teleconnections.
It is important to understand that these forecasts provide average conditions for temperature, precipitation, and wind over a three-month period.
Therefore, although both the Met Office and MeteoGroup anticipate warmer-than-average weather this summer, fluctuations including cooler weeks remain possible.
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