Kiribati’s Tuna Economy and Geographic Context
The vast Pacific Ocean and its numerous islands produce over half of the world's tuna supply. Among these islands are 33 scattered across the central Pacific, comprising the nation of Kiribati.
In Kiribati, more than 70% of government revenue derives from selling tuna fishing licenses to foreign fleets, representing the highest proportion of any country globally.
Kiribati has a very small landmass; when combined, its islands are approximately the size of New York City. However, it commands an extensive Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) covering more than 3.4 million square kilometers (1.3 million square miles). This EEZ is divided into three separate areas surrounding Kiribati’s three island groups: Gilbert, Phoenix, and Line.
This maritime territory is larger than India and provides access to a rich marine ecosystem, including skipjack, yellowfin, and bigeye tuna species.
Climate Change Impacts on Tuna and Kiribati’s Economy
Although the ocean is central to Kiribati’s culture, livelihoods, and economy, it also poses a significant threat. Rising ocean temperatures caused by climate change endanger local tuna populations, which underpin Kiribati’s economic stability.
Scientists warn that warming waters may cause tuna to migrate permanently eastward to cooler areas outside Kiribati’s EEZ. This shift would reduce demand from foreign fleets for fishing licenses, severely impacting the country’s economy.
The global tuna market is valued at over $44 billion annually, according to research.
Foreign fleets must obtain licenses from Kiribati’s government to fish in its waters, pay associated fees, and comply with strict catch limits and reporting requirements. Most licenses are purchased by countries such as Japan, China, the United States, and members of the European Union.
In 2024, Kiribati generated $137 million (£102 million) from fishing license sales, according to government data. Riibeta Abeta, permanent secretary for Kiribati’s Ministry of Fisheries, describes this income as a "critical financial lifeline."
"Such licenses contributed to almost three-quarters of government income between 2018 and 2022,"
Abeta added. The International Monetary Fund estimates this revenue accounts for approximately 40% of Kiribati’s GDP.
Tuna’s Sensitivity to Temperature and Economic Vulnerability
Simon Diffey, a fisheries specialist with over 30 years of experience in Kiribati, notes:
"Next time you go into the supermarket and you look at the cans of tuna, five-and-a half cans out of 10 stacked up are coming from the Western Central Pacific Ocean [including Kiribati]."
Diffey identifies Kiribati and Papua New Guinea as the two largest players in the region. However, unlike Papua New Guinea, which has land and resources to diversify its economy, Kiribati lacks such options.
"The highest point above sea level in Kiribati - unless you climb a coconut tree - is two metres. No water, no land, no resources other than fish."
He explains that tuna are highly sensitive to minor changes in water temperature, reacting to variations as small as a tenth of a degree Celsius. As Pacific Ocean surface temperatures rise, tuna are expected to migrate to cooler waters.
Multiple studies predict this migration will be eastward, away from island nations including Kiribati.
Abeta emphasizes the economic risk, stating:
"The risk of international fishing ships not needing to buy the country's fishing licences introduces significant volatility to the country's revenue."
Projected Economic and Ecological Impacts
Kiribati is forecast to be among the most severely affected countries by tuna stock migration, according to a communique issued in November by the regional development organization, the Pacific Community.
The Ministry of Fisheries reports preliminary models indicating a potential loss exceeding $10 million annually in fishing access fees by 2050 if global greenhouse gas emissions remain high.
Conversely, under a best-case scenario with significantly reduced emissions, the Ministry predicts no decline in tuna biomass within Kiribati’s EEZ.
Despite this, local fishermen are expected to experience reduced catches under both high and low emission scenarios, according to the Pacific Community.
The Line Islands are projected to be the hardest hit, with an estimated two-thirds loss in fish catch even under the low-emission scenario. Meanwhile, Kiribati’s population of approximately 130,000 is expected to grow, with rapid urbanization, particularly in the capital Tarawa, increasing pressure on limited land and resources.
Food Security Challenges
Concerns are rising about declining local fish stocks exacerbating food security challenges. With fish supplies under strain, households are increasingly reliant on imported foods.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warns that this dietary shift raises costs and reduces nutritional quality, especially in outer island communities where fish has traditionally been the primary protein source.
The Pacific Community reports that the average person in Kiribati consumes about 100 kilograms of fish annually, compared to roughly 9 kilograms in the United States and 22 kilograms in Japan.
Adaptation and Support Initiatives
In response, new support programs have been initiated. The United Nations Green Climate Fund (GCF) launched a $156.8 million (£116 million) project last year titled "Adapting Tuna-Dependent Pacific Island Communities and Economies to Climate Change," covering 14 countries and territories in the region.
Hemant Mandal, GCF director for Asia and the Pacific, explains:
"This is helping Pacific Island countries get ahead of climate change by strengthening their food security based on better information."
The project aims to develop enhanced warning systems to help countries like Kiribati better predict tuna stock redistribution and its economic consequences. It also seeks to maintain food security and government revenue despite declining reef fisheries.
The Ministry of Fisheries states:
"These measures are expected to provide around four million nutritious fish meals each year for communities in Kiribati."
Government Strategies for Economic Diversification
Kiribati’s government is expanding domestic tuna processing and canning facilities to add value beyond selling fishing licenses to foreign fleets.
Abeta notes that the government is also developing ocean farming of species such as milkfish, snapper, and sea cucumbers to support both exports and local food security.
Additionally, Kiribati is pursuing revenue diversification beyond the marine economy, including tourism, renewable energy, and managing its offshore sovereign wealth fund.
"Kiribati retains grounds for optimism and strategic opportunity,"
Abeta concludes.
Existential Threat from Climate Change
Despite these efforts and hopes, Kiribati and its extensive territorial waters face an existential threat from climate change, which jeopardizes both its economic foundation and the well-being of its people.
