You have the choice of instantly receiving £50,000 or flipping a coin for a 50/50 chance of £1m. The vast majority of people in a YouGov survey opted for the guaranteed cash, with women voting 82% in favour of taking the sure £50,000.
The poll has sparked debate about why Brits appear more risk-averse than people in the US, and what financial and psychological factors may be influencing the result. While the choice is unlikely to arise in real life, it offers lessons about how people think about money.
Do you agree with the majority?
Nearly three-quarters (73%) of the 4,600 adults asked in the survey said they would take the £50,000 now. Just over a fifth (21%) chose the chance of £1m, while 6% said they could not decide.
The gender split was striking. Some 82% of women opted for the £50,000, compared with 63% of men.
This fits with other research suggesting that men are twice as likely to invest in stocks and shares than women, external, and that women are more likely to to cash ISAs than men, external.
Does the choice depend on how much you earn?
Many people may choose the £50,000 guarantee because it is a life-changing sum in itself. It is also £10,000 more than the median average earnings for full-time workers in the UK for an entire year, according to official statistics, external.
However, younger people generally earn less and yet, according to this survey, external, those aged 18 to 24 were more willing to take the bet on £1m than any other age group. Some 28% chose the coin flip, compared with just 11% among the over-65s, their grandparents' generation.
There is a different tipping point for everyone. If the survey were repeated with a guarantee of £5 or a 50/50 chance of £100, most people would probably go for the £100 bet. After all, lots of people bet at least £2 a week hoping for a National Lottery win.
As the amounts rise, appetite for risk becomes clearer.
Why not just invest the £50k?
One option is to take the guaranteed £50,000 and hope it grows over time. Saving the money would be helped by the magic of compound interest.
Alternatively, someone could take more of a risk, but potentially with greater reward, by investing the money. What has happened in the past will not necessarily happen in the future when it comes to investments.
But, according to Sarah Coles, of investment firm AJ Bell, you would have had to invest £50,000 in a typical global fund just under 38 years ago for it to be worth £1m today.
Is it all in the mind?
Coles says people are hardwired to choose the guaranteed £50,000 because losses are felt more acutely than gains.
"The thrill of potentially winning £1m is felt less strongly than the fear of giving up a guaranteed £50,000 and ending up with nothing," she says.
In other words, having £50,000 and knowing you might have won £1m can play on the mind.
But it is not as bad as taking a shot at £1m and knowing you gave up enough for an average deposit to buy a home in the West Midlands, external.
- We split money equally even when one of us earned a lot more
- Are you a parent missing out on £27 a week? Here's how to check
- Fake romance to missed deliveries: How to protect yourself from three common scams
Sadly, there is little chance of ever having such a choice, but there are some interesting lessons for how we manage our money nonetheless.
