President Donald Trump’s tariffs could reduce expected growth in Northern Ireland’s exports to the US by 15%, according to new research commissioned by Stormont’s Department for the Economy. The study says the biggest impact would be in the pharmaceutical sector, where exports could end up 18% lower than they would be in a scenario without tariffs.
Tariffs are taxes placed on imported goods, designed to protect domestic manufacturers. President Trump has imposed a 10% baseline tariff on most UK goods, although UK-produced pharmaceuticals currently face a 0% rate under temporary exemptions.
Economists warn that if those exemptions expire after 2029, the long-term drag on Northern Irish manufacturing could be substantial. On Tuesday, Trump warned that from 2028 he would start imposing 100% tariffs on generic drugs from countries that do not have a deal with the US, before doubling that tariff to 200% in 2029.
Generic drugs are off-patent or unbranded medicines. They are widely used in the US and the majority of them are imported.
Which sectors in Northern Ireland would be hit hardest?
The study, by Dublin’s Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), says Northern Ireland’s transport equipment sector is also facing a significant impact. That sector includes manufacturing such as aircraft parts, and exports of these products could be 14% lower than in a scenario without tariffs.
Overall, the long-run impact on all Northern Ireland goods exports to the US would be a 15% reduction compared with a zero-tariff scenario. The study says that would reduce Northern Ireland’s economic growth potential by 0.4%.
How have ministers responded?
Stormont’s Economy Minister Caoimhe Archibald said the research confirms that increased trade barriers are likely to have negative consequences for economic growth, trade and employment.
“As a small, open economy with strong trading links to both Britain and the European Union, the north is particularly sensitive to changes in the global trading environment,” she added.
The report comes as President Trump has escalated his trade dispute with neighbouring Canada. He announced a 50% tariff on a wide range of Canadian imports, in retaliation for what he called “unequal treatment” of US cars, dairy products and alcoholic drinks.
“unequal treatment”
Consumer items such as hockey sticks and industrial goods like cement are among the goods targeted. However, several key exports will be spared, such as energy, critical minerals and fish.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded by saying he stood ready to
“intensify”trade talks with the US in the coming weeks. The White House said the tariffs would take effect in 30 days.
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