Surge in Oil Trades Precedes Trump's Announcement
Traders wagered hundreds of millions of dollars on oil contracts just minutes before US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that the United States would postpone strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure.
Market data reviewed by the BBC reveals a spike in trading volume approximately fifteen minutes before the president's social media post announcing the decision.
Following the announcement, oil prices dropped sharply, falling 14% within minutes. Traders who anticipated the unexpected move profited from these market changes.
Speculation of Insider Knowledge
Some market analysts suggest that the unusual trading activity raises the possibility that bets were placed with prior knowledge of the decision.
The BBC has reached out to the White House for comment. A spokesman told the Financial Times that the administration does not "tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering off of insider knowledge."
Market Impact Amid Middle East Conflict
Global financial markets have been unsettled by the Middle East conflict, with share prices declining as oil and gas prices surged. However, on several occasions, hopes for a potential resolution to the conflict have caused volatile movements, including sharp oil price drops and stock market gains.
On Saturday, Trump threatened to "obliterate" Iran's power plants if the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for about 20% of the world's oil and gas, was not reopened within 48 hours.
Markets were closed on that day but fell sharply across Asia when they reopened Monday morning, while oil prices began to climb.
At 07:04 Eastern Time (11:04 GMT) on Monday, before US markets opened for the week, the president posted on his Truth Social platform that Washington had held "VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS" with Tehran regarding a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION" to hostilities.
Immediately after, stock markets rebounded and the price of oil dipped to as low as $84 (£63) per barrel for the benchmark US price.
Detailed Trading Activity Analysis
Observers have closely examined financial market activity in the minutes leading up to the president's post.
At 06:49 ET, traders placed 733 bets on WTI crude oil contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex).
One minute later, this number surged to 2,007, equating to approximately $170 million.
A similar pattern was observed in Brent crude contracts, another major oil benchmark. Within a minute, the volume of trades increased from 20 to over 1,600, representing about $150 million in contracts.
Data from previous Mondays indicates that far fewer trades are typically made at this time of day.
Expert Opinions on Abnormal Trading
"This appears abnormal, for sure,"said Mukesh Sahdev, chief oil analyst at XAnalysts.
"At that time, there were no indications that any serious talks had been taking place between the US and Iran. So to place so much money on oil going down raises questions".
The timing of these bets has prompted questions about whether they were made with prior knowledge of the president's announcement.
"Just before he posted on social media, quite a lot of people took out contracts that would allow them to profit from the oil price falling,"said Rachel Winter, a partner at the wealth management firm Killik & Co.
"So there has been some speculation about insider trading. We don't know if that's true, but hopefully there will be some sort of investigation into that,"she added.
Iran Denies Talks, Markets React
Later on Monday, the Iranian government denied that any talks had taken place, labeling them "fake news," which caused Asian stock markets to rise slightly on Tuesday.
In a post on X, the Speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, stated:
"Fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped."
The BBC has contacted the US financial regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the UK's Financial Conduct Authority for comment.
Historical Context of Trading Linked to US Foreign Policy
This is not the first instance where US foreign policy has been associated with a surge in betting activity.
In January, wagers increased significantly on Polymarket, a crypto-powered prediction platform, as gamblers bet on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro being removed from power by the end of the month. Hours later, he was reportedly seized by American forces.
One account reportedly earned more than $436,000 from a $32,537 bet.
